Monrovia – The resignation of Bronwyn Barnes as President and Chief Executive Officer of Ivanhoe Atlantic is the strongest indication yet that the U.S.-backed iron ore project linking Guinea to Liberia is facing serious trouble, with far-reaching implications for Liberia’s rail, mining, and infrastructure ambitions.
By Gerald C. Koinyeneh, gerald.koinyeneh@frontpageafricaonline.com
Barnes’ exit comes barely months after the Liberian government celebrated a US$1.8 billion agreement with Ivanhoe Atlantic to establish a new cross-border rail corridor that would position Liberia as a strategic export gateway for Guinean iron ore. That vision is now increasingly in doubt.
Barnes’ Exit and Its Significance
Barnes was not merely Ivanhoe Atlantic’s chief executive; she was the project’s principal political and diplomatic face. She led negotiations with the Liberian government, engaged Guinean authorities, and served as the public bridge to U.S. geopolitical interests backing the project.
In 2025, she was at the center of intense lobbying efforts after Liberia’s Inter-Ministerial Concessions Committee (IMCC) reversed course and reaffirmed ArcelorMittal Liberia’s (AML) role as operator of the Yekepa–Buchanan railway—critical infrastructure Ivanhoe hoped to access.
“It is very unusual for a mining company to operate a railway line owned by the government,” Barnes said in an exclusive interview with FrontPageAfrica in Monrovia. “What typically happens is the government appoints an independent operator and ensures equitable and transparent access for all users. What the Boakai administration is doing aligns with international best practice.”
Analysts say her departure now strongly suggests Ivanhoe Atlantic has encountered structural and political obstacles it can no longer manage under its current strategy.
Industry sources say the resignation reflects growing uncertainty over whether Ivanhoe can secure any viable export route—an existential problem for a mining company without guaranteed access to rail or port infrastructure. Analysts add that Barnes’ exit weakens Ivanhoe’s credibility with host governments, investors, and U.S. backers already uneasy about slow progress and mounting geopolitical complications.
Liberia Rail Access: The First Red Flag
Ivanhoe Atlantic’s Liberia strategy hinges almost entirely on access to the Yekepa–Buchanan railway, currently operated by ArcelorMittal Liberia. Although lawmakers approved a multi-user rail framework, the operational reality remains uncertain.
AML’s ongoing expansion at Yekepa is already consuming significant rail capacity, raising doubts about whether surplus access exists for a competing exporter. Critics argue that both Ivanhoe and the Liberian government celebrated legislative approval without first securing enforceable, bankable access agreements.
In essence, the law opened the door—but no one confirmed there was space on the tracks.
Guinea: A Deal Liberia Cannot Enforce
The more serious challenge lies beyond Liberia’s borders. Ivanhoe’s plan depends on transporting iron ore from its Guinean operations through Liberia, yet questions persist over whether Guinea has formally approved such exports.
In 2020, Guinea reportedly authorized a maximum of five million metric tons per annum (mtpa) of ore for transit through Liberia—a cap that, according to multiple sources, remains unchanged.
In a letter to Barnes, President Joseph Boakai’s Economic Advisor, Molley Kamara, accused Ivanhoe of shifting away from its original commitment to build new infrastructure and instead seeking access to AML’s existing assets. He also questioned the company’s transparency regarding its projected US$3.15 billion economic impact.
“Your company has not been transparent with the government and the IMCC,” Kamara wrote. “Can the Guinean government guarantee that Ivanhoe would ship ore through Liberia—and at what volume?”
Barnes countered that Ivanhoe holds a mining convention ratified by Guinea’s parliament in 2020, granting the company rights to export up to 30 million mtpa through Liberia. She further cited a bilateral treaty between Liberia and Guinea allowing cross-border mineral exports via the Yekepa–Buchanan railway and Buchanan Port.
“All those agreements have been in place since 2020,” Barnes said. “What we’re doing now is finalizing a framework agreement with Liberia to provide technical and operational access to the railway.”
Subsequent developments, however, suggest those assurances were far from settled.
Senate Committee Flags Treaty and Governance Failures
A Joint Committee of the Liberian Legislature reviewing the Concession and Access Agreement (CAA) raised serious concerns about treaty compliance, diplomatic exposure, and infrastructure governance, warning that the agreement could not proceed without major amendments.
In a detailed report to the Senate Plenary, the committee—comprising panels on Transport, Concessions, Judiciary, Ways, Means, Finance, and Budget, among others—found no evidence of formal engagement with the Government of Guinea since 2021, despite the project’s complete reliance on Guinean iron ore transshipment.
The committee was tasked with assessing the legal, fiscal, environmental, and governance implications of the agreement, including compliance with Liberia’s obligations under the Liberia–Guinea Implementation Agreement (IA).
Why the Implementation Agreement Matters
The Liberia–Guinea Implementation Agreement is a binding bilateral treaty governing shared use of transport infrastructure for cross-border mining activities. It establishes joint institutions—including inter-ministerial and technical committees—to ensure that no private company gains access to shared infrastructure without the consent of both governments.
Analysts emphasize that under Liberia’s Constitution, the IA carries the force of law. Any concession or access agreement inconsistent with it is vulnerable to legal challenge, diplomatic fallout, or termination.
The Joint Committee found no evidence that the treaty-mandated institutions were ever established or operational.
“No minutes, resolutions, technical opinions, or access templates were presented to demonstrate compliance,” the report stated.
Executive Faulted, Risks Ignored
The committee also criticized the Executive Branch for failing to provide the requested documentation ahead of a December 12, 2025 public hearing. Documents submitted by the Ministry of Transport were largely outdated and failed to demonstrate recent engagement with Guinea.
“All documentary evidence before the Committee indicates that the last formal communication between the Governments of Liberia and Guinea occurred in or about August 2021,” the report noted.
Despite these warnings, the Senate voted to concur with the House of Representatives and passed the agreement.
Guinea Moves in a Different Direction
Meanwhile, Guinea has made clear—both under its former military government and the current civilian administration—that it intends to export its iron ore through its own infrastructure. This strategy centers on the massive Simandou project and a Chinese-backed 670-kilometre railway to the port of Morebaya.
That policy direction directly undermines Ivanhoe Atlantic’s plan to route Guinean ore through Liberia. Liberia cannot compel Guinea to redirect its exports, nor does it control Guinea’s mineral resources.
If Guinea refuses authorization—as current signals suggest—the US$1.8 billion Liberia-Ivanhoe agreement risks becoming largely symbolic.
Ignoring the Writing on the Wall
Despite these warning signs, both Ivanhoe Atlantic and the Liberian government pressed ahead, framing the rail deal as a geopolitical victory aligned with U.S. strategic interests. Yet Guinea’s infrastructure plans, environmental sensitivities around Mount Nimba, and deep alignment with Chinese partners were never hidden.
Analysts now say the project was built more on diplomatic optimism than hard commercial guarantees.
What’s at Stake for Liberia
For Liberia, the fallout is as much reputational as economic. The government invested significant political capital in promoting itself as a regional logistics hub, only to confront the limits of infrastructure diplomacy.
If the Ivanhoe project stalls or collapses, it may reinforce investor skepticism about Liberia’s ability to translate high-profile agreements into operational realities.
A Project at a Crossroads
Barnes’ resignation underscores a stark reality: without guaranteed rail access in Liberia and explicit export authorization from Guinea, Ivanhoe Atlantic’s flagship project remains stranded—geographically, commercially, and politically.
Unless Guinea dramatically shifts its posture or regional export logic is renegotiated, Liberia’s celebrated rail deal may stand as another cautionary tale of ambition outpacing leverage in West Africa’s mining politics.
The signs were there. The question now is who will bear the cost of ignoring them.
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